Myanmar: China’s Decisive Intervention, India Marginalised

Abstract

Myanmar’s ongoing civil conflict has emerged as a key arena for geopolitical competition, particularly between India and China. China has significantly enhanced its influence in the country through assertive and strategic interventions, notably in the context of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By mediating ceasefire agreements and engaging actively with Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, China has consolidated its position as the primary external player in the conflict, ensuring the stability of critical infrastructure routes and safeguarding its investments. In contrast, India’s approach has been more reactive, primarily relying on ASEAN-led mediation efforts that have yielded limited results. India’s failure to capitalize on historical ties with Myanmar’s ethnic groups and its cautious diplomatic stance have sidelined it in the region, undermining its aspirations under the ‘Act East’ policy. As China continues to assert its influence, India risks further marginalization, with implications for its connectivity projects and broader strategic goals in Southeast Asia. This paper explores the contrasting approaches of India and China in Myanmar, analyzing the implications for India’s regional ambitions and suggesting that a more proactive strategy is essential for India to secure its geopolitical and economic interests in the face of China's expanding dominance.